Wednesday, September 23, 2009

So what's the market really like?


You could make the argument that markets are neither good nor bad, they just are. I mean how can a "market" be anything other than what it is? But depending on your own personal situation you may decide to label it to fit your perception of it. But one could say that what is good for you where you are is perceived differently by someone else where they are.

According to my perception the market is just what it is....a market. I have adapted my own perceptions of it to be able to continue to work efficiently. I certainly don't want to fight the market, I have taken action based on what is. I really don't know any other way to put it? I am busy with numerous buyers all looking for something different. So it is a game of matching one persons perception/desire(buyer) with another persons perception/desire(seller). If we can can find or create a match I guess we create a "good" or maybe a better term would be a functioning market, if one feels a need to label it. I am having more success recently making these matches. It would appear that perceptions are starting to align, allowing the market to be (function) as they were meant to do.

I don't think it is either a buyers or a sellers market, I just believe that peoples expectations are a bit adrift. This is not so much about credit markets as it is about market place (mis)perceptions, perhaps based on individual circumstances (you can tell some one suffering is illusion, but that wont stop them from suffering...action is needed). It is very easy to use empirical data to arrive at a price that should allow a property to trade according to current market conditions. Of course we can make adjustments according to a properties individual attributes. But you must be able to accept what the market is based on what is happening in this moment. Sometimes that will mean making a profit, sometimes that will mean breaking even or it can mean losing money. In rare circumstances you will have something that defies a rational market and you may achieve an unusual result, some would argue that this is what happened with regards to the sale of Bernie Madofs Montaulk beach house.

Of course the other choice is not to participate in the market. No one knows with any degree of certainty what is going to happen at some future point in time. Even the smartest humans on the planet are simply guessing. When you are buying a home I think the most important metric is "does this make sense for me right now". Remember "being in the moment" is a lot different than "living for the moment", lol. In the first scenario you are making sound decisions based on all the information known to you. In the latter, one could say this was the pattern of action many people took over the previous "bubble" period, it is heavily based in some set of future circumstances.

So the market will be just what it is, what else can it be. We will have to adapt to it and certainly just based on the data available things are changing and will continue to change. Prices will adjust, brokerage houses will have to consolidate. If you are a direct participant in this market you will have to adapt or become extinct.

Let the market function and accept it.

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